Why hope for a one-term Obama Presidency relies on this question: can Mitt still beat Newt?

Recently, I’ve been getting calls, texts and emails from my less politically involved friends and family, and they all seem to be asking one question: Is there any hope for Mitt? Or can we expect four more years of Obama after Newt Gingrich gets trounced in the fall?

The messages come to me from Texas, West Virginia, Nevada, and Washington, among other places (including one politically disenchanted soldier in Afghanistan).

Watching the national news media and the polls, it isn’t hard to see why. With Gingrich rising in the polls, shifting from self-destruction after a cruise in Greece last spring (literally–he went on a cruise to Greece while the rest of the candidates were gearing up for their first debates and most of his campaign staff defected) to front runner as the “not Romney” wing of the Republican Party casts about for someone who, well, isn’t Romney, it’s easy to see why people worry.

They have watched Presidency begin on the wings of hope and change during the worst economy in a generation, seen how unprepared the relatively inexperienced Barack Obama was for the task of leadership, and then watched in startling disbelief as the President, rather than focus on the economy, the President and the Democratic dominated Congress turned their attention to the largest expansion of government and entitlements in fifty years.

Is there any wonder why so many Americans are angry at Washington? If, as one person told me, everyone in America argued and bickered the way the Congress and the President does instead of just doing their job, nothing would ever get done and the world would grind to a halt.

Which, I guess, is probably worse than the Congress constantly threatening to shut down government and Barack Obama or the Congress coming up with a budget they can pass in three years. So at least enough of the world can function without relying on elected officials in Washington from doing their job.

But I’m getting off topic, which was this: is there hope for a Republican candidate who can beat Barack Obama in November?  Right now, if Gingrich keeps his numbers up, it can look depressing. Currently, polling rates all Republican candidates, except two, as failing against Barack Obama. The current leader–Newt Gingrich–is unexpected to beat Obama in the fall. According to an NBC/WSJ poll out yesterday (poll here), half of American voters say they won’t vote for Gingrich.

Ever.

A RealClearPolitics General Election match-up of Gingrich vs. Obama.

President Obama’s campaign team loves this. In fact, they’re “bullish” about running against Newt.

Romney’s another story. He’s consistently polling close enough to beat Obama. Check it out.

A RealClearPolitics General Election match-up of Romney vs. Obama.

And there is the hope that many Republicans have watched fade. The man who could be Barack Obama is fading (granted, there’s Jon Huntsman, too, who could probably also beat Obama, but he’s polling in the single digits and his campaign has dropped out of every state but Iowa).

So, is there any hope? You bet. And you don’t need $10,000 to make that bet.

New primary election rules mean a longer campaign–and that benefits Romney

There is still a very good chance that Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee in the fall. The reason for that lies in how the Republican Primary rules have changed since 2008. From the Boston Globe:

Under the rules, which Romney has cited in several recent interviews, most states that vote before April 1 will award their delegates in proportion to the tally, rather than give them all to the candidate who wins a simple majority. A candidate who captures 30 percent of the vote but still loses the state, for example, will still get 30 percent of the delegates.

If you recall, in 2008 McCain had tied up the nomination by March 5, Super Tuesday (so called because of the large number of states that hold their primary on the same Tuesday). Romney bowed out of the race two days later. And then the Republican party sat back and watch Obama and Hillary Clinton duke it out over the Democratic nomination for several more months. McCain could barely get a headline in sideways between the two. The nation was riveted to the Democratic contest, and by mid-October, it was clear that Obama would be the next President.

With that lesson in mind, the National Republican Party changed the rules to prevent another side-lining. Starting this year, states that hold primaries earlier than April 1 will deliver their votes to the candidates according to the proportion which the candidates win. No “winner take all” primary contests before that date. The earliest that a candidate could clinch the Republican nomination, then, will be April 24, and then only by capturing a high proportion of the votes.

The Republican National Committee adopted the rules last year to make it harder for a candidate to wrap up the nomination early. The committee said the rules, combined with an election calendar that pushes more states to vote later, would force the candidates to campaign across the country, energizing more voters by giving them a greater say in selecting the nominee.

What would that have looked like in 2008? On March 5, Mitt Romney, while not winning as many contests as McCain, would have had a comparable number of votes. The primary race would have gone on for several more months.

What does it look like in 2012? A longer contest benefits Romney in more ways than one:

1. Romney has more organization and money than Gingrich. Beyond the first few primary states (Iowa, New Hampshire, etc), Gingrich has nothing of the campaign structure in place that Romney’s 50 state campaign has organized. The more states that hold their primaries before a winner is selected, the more this will benefit Romney.
2. Gingrich has negatives that will only become more clear over a longer campaign. Having already run the national stage once in recent years, there isn’t a lot that pundits and hacks can throw at Romney that voters haven’t already heard. Gingrich, however, has himself to thank for all the people he’s offended over the years. Don’t think that’s true? Just check this.
3. The more that Romney can stretch out a primary contest, the more free media attention he gets going towards November and the general election.

Related articles

• “Against Gingrich”: National Review Editorial Comes Out Against Newt Gingrich (themoderatevoice.com)
• Mitt Romney Beats Barack Obama – If Republicans Are Smart (pjmedia.com)
• Barack Obama’s popularity down, but Newt Gingrich worse, says poll (vancouversun.com)
• Craig Bergman, Newt Gingrich’s Iowa Political Director, Resigns After Referring To Mormonism As A ‘Cult’ (huffingtonpost.com)
• Ten Conservatives Vs. Newt: With Friends Like These… (momfy.wordpress.com)
• Newt Gingrich still leads the GOP field – but Barack Obama would crush him (guardian.co.uk)