May 20, 2012

Austerity? Europe never even got there.

Just because France and Greece have decided, by majority vote, that they don’t want to cut down the welfare state does not mean that they can afford to continue spending. Nor does it mean, as Democrats would have you believe,  that cutting the deficit is a bad idea.

All it means is that a majority of voters in France (about 51.8%...not exactly a resounding mandate) picked Socialist Hollande and his promise to end “austerity.”  Meanwhile,  in Greece, where unemployment is well over 20%, Coalition for the Radical Left  leader Alexis Tsipras, when given the opportunity to form a governing majority, thumbed his nose at the holders of Greece’s debt and edged his country closer to national bankruptcy.

World markets responded accordingly…meaning, European stocks dropped when investors fled, taking their money to places where people actually face reality with seriousness.  Places that don’t rhyme with “syrup.”

None of this means, however, that “austerity” is wrong.

In fact, it’s not even clear that Europe has even entered the phase of “austerity” programs where austerity happens. Taxes have been raised on the wealthy, says Michael Tanner, but austerity programs won’t actually kick in for several years.

For example, France will raise its retirement age from 60 to 62, but not until 2017! A cap would also be put on government health-care spending, starting next year. It is a little hard, therefore, to discern whether it is budget cuts that may or may not happen some day in the future, rather than tax increases today, that have slowed French economic growth.

Or take Britain, where the Tory-Liberal coalition recently suffered a drubbing in local elections, in part as a reaction to so-called austerity measures. Among the Cameron government’s first “austerity” measures was to hike the personal income tax to 50 percent for those earning more than £150,000 a year. That measure managed to actually decrease income-tax revenues by £509 million. The U.K. did trim government payrolls and cut back on some government programs, but British government spending still consumes more than 49 percent of GDP. Government spending actually increased by £59.2 billion from 2009 to 2011.

It’s a “tax today and maybe we’ll cut entitlements in the distant future” type approach. There’s no austerity happening. Just promises austerity accompanied by immediate increases in tax rates on the wealthy and middle-class. Says Tanner

  • Spain: imposed a “wealth tax” on citizens with €700,000 of assets, and a 7 percent income tax on those earning more than €300,000 per year; capital-gains taxes were also hiked.
  • Italy: imposed a “Solidarity Tax” of 3 percent on all taxpayers who earn more than €300,000.
  • Greece: increased taxes by nearly twice as much as it cut spending, including a 5 percent surtax on the wealthy.
  • On the middle-class Europe-wide: VAT hikes,  as well as tax increases on fuel, alcohol, and tobacco.

Any wonder why European stocks dropped yesterday? No one wants to invest in a country–or a continent–where their investment isn’t going to grow and in fact faces a very real likelihood of being taken, too.

This shouldn’t be a debate over “raising taxes” and the “cutting taxes.” Rather, it should be about government spending less so that the tax burden on business is not so heavy. The way to growth is to make it easier, and cheaper, for businesses to grow, there by putting more money into the pockets of individuals to spend. You can’t with one hand run up big surpluses and with the other hand raise taxes or print more money. The result is a net loss, especially to those who can afford to save less.

Europe never stopped spending, at least not less than it taxed. Greece and France are going that reality really is non-negotiable. Especially when Germany, who holds the cards, tells them ‘no’ to new bailouts.

“Greece can rely on the solidarity of Europe, but if Greece does not help itself, there is nothing to be done,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told a news conference.

“Whether Greece is ready to do what is necessary – only the Greek people can decide.”

When it comes down to it, the Democrats in America can point to the votes in France and Greece as for why cutting government won’t put people back to work. At the end of the day, though, Democrats are wrong. Three years of spending has not brought about real change in our employment or our wealth creation. We are still at around 15% unemployed (when counting those who are underemployed or no longer seeking work).

 

[CBS] [CNBC] [Christian Science Monitor] [CATO]

Good morning, World. Did you notice May 7, 2012?

In case you didn’t notice, world politics shifted just a little this weekend. How dramatically is yet to be seen.

Thumbing their nose at a Europe-wide policy of spending no more than revenues bring in (also known as “austerity” and “what makes sense”), French voters kicked Nicolas Sarkozy to the curb and chose socialist Francois Hollande as their new president.

Hollande’s first order of business? Renegotiate the “austerity pact” with German chancellor Angela Merkel, per his campaign promises, to allow deficit and stimulus spending. Merkel has already told Hollande that he will be unable to keep said campaign promises and that she will not renegotiate.

Meanwhile, another corner of Europe, the Greeks rejected austerity measures required for bailout of Greek debt, kicking out of office those who negotiated the debt deal in February that kept Greece out of bankruptcy.

 

The defeat left the two political parties that had supported the bailout with only 34 percent of the country’s support, according to initial results. The rescue package, Greece’s second, gave the country $171 billion in emergency loans earlier this year but required biting spending cuts. Now, both the aid and the cuts are in doubt.

Because, you know, it makes sense to financiers around the world to throw good money after bad. Voters in France and Greece have decided that the spending cuts to make their countries solvent again just aren’t important enough to justify cuts to the welfare state.

Oh, and if that weren’t bad enough for a weekend, this guy was inaugurated President of Russia today. If that doesn’t just put a cherry on the top of a “seismic shift” in world politics, as The Guardian called it, I don’t know what does better (short of a war). Socialist elected in France, the Greeks reject a debt deal three months after the deal is inked, and Russia inaugurates a former KGB officer to an unprecedented third term in office (I mean, unless you count the tsars and Soviets).

And we thought our politics were interesting…

[Washington Post] [NPR] [Guardian] [Los Angeles Times]

Vladimir Putin: the “most interesting man in the world,” or the beginning of a personality cult?

Vladimir Putin: the man, the myth, the … next president of Russia? In the post-Clinton age, if there’s one person who appears on the Drudge Report more than Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, it’s Mr. Putin. If it’s not in relationship to international affairs and Russia, he appears there in some daring, manly activity, occasionally bare chested and buff, unsmiling and tough.

He is, by some accounts, Putin, the “action man.”  It isn’t enough to sit on top of the world’s second largest arsenal of  nuclear weapons (or is it the largest?); apparently Vlad must be able to show his ability to best anyone in mortal combat, as well.

Martial arts? He’ll take you on. Riding on horses? In cold weather or summer heat?  Hockey? He’ll score. Hunting? Shirtless.

And he’s strong, too. Arm wrestling or pan bending, he’s game.

Or maybe you want to go to Monte Carlo and race? Watch out, Tony Stark: Ivan Vanko isn’t the only Russian you should watch for there.

But Putin isn’t all kill, thrill and speed. He’s also a combination of tough and tender. For example, take the time when he visited and examined a tiger with the Russian academy of science. He’s a conservationist with a taste for dangerous animals, too. Or assisted in Arctic Circle climate change research.

As if that wasn’t enough, Putin is also an amateur archaeologist, discovering submerged ancient pottery while scuba diving near Greece.

 
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In short, he is the most interesting man in the world–a concert pianist, a motorcyclist, outdoorsman, hunter, climatologist, martial artist (and maybe a ninja?), dog lover, horse whisperer, pilot (of jets, tanks, and firefighting planes, too), and submariner. I wouldn’t be surprised if he drinks Dos Equis, too, though vodka would seem more stereotypical of this man of men.

Indeed. From spy hunter in the KGB’s counter-intelligence arm, Putin has risen to become one of the most powerful men in Russia, if not the world. In the last week he has been nominated for a third term as President of Russia, and he looks likely to take  the job. Dmitry Medvedev was only ever a place holder, and now will step down to take the place of Prime Minister (a job he had while Putin was President three years ago).

As speculated by one journalist, though, we are only mid-way through Putin’s political career. There are feats of strength for him to accomplish yet :

The year is 2024[...]

Only one leader has defied the iron law that all politicians eventually leave office. His name? Vladimir Putin. Now 71, Putin has served two more terms as Russia‘s president – bringing the tally of his stints in the Kremlin up to a remarkable four – the final two lasting a total of 12 years. He is fitter and more vigorous than ever: Russian first state TV channel has recently shown him wrestling heroically with a python after it “escaped” from a Moscow zoo.

In theory, this is the moment when Putin should finally step down after a quarter of century at the apex of Russian power. He has already outlasted Leonid Brezhnev (18 years) and is closing in fast on comrade Stalin (a whopping 31).

If that last comparison seems strange in this day decades after the fall of communist Russia, take a moment to examine Putin–if you, or anyone, knows much about his politics, it is irrelevant. What matters is that he is creating an image that is not unlike the cults of popularity that surrounded the megalomaniacs and dictators of the last century.

It’s a bleak prospect. Liberals in Moscow and St Petersburg were yesterday posting a photo of Putin mocked up to look like Leonid Brezhnev – complete with military uniform, patriotic Soviet medals and a hammer and sickle. Putin even got Brezhnevian eyebrows.

Actually, the comparisons with the Brezhnev era are spot-on. Brezhnev presided over another era of political and economic stagnation, the 1970s, sustained by a commodities boom and high oil prices. He also had a war – he sent the Red Army to invade Afghanistan. In 2008 Putin did the same thing. He sent Russian tanks into Georgia, promising to hang Georgia’s pro-western leader Mikheil Saakashvili “by the balls”. It was a brutal lesson in neighbourhood geopolitics.

Like Brezhnev, Putin will have his Olympics, too, in 2014 when the Winter Olympics go to Sochni. With a former KGB officer at the head of the Russian state, is it hard to believe that little has changed in Russia? Further, is it hard to predict that the United States might expect trouble from a resurgent Russia under a “strong” man Putin?

With the geopolitical macho Putin returning to a more internationally prominent role (and Medvedev shunted to the diminished prime ministry, essentially, an economic management slot), Mr. Obama and other Western leaders will have to deal with the longest-serving leader among theG-8. Putin will command the second largest nuclear arsenal in the world. And he will have Russia’s massive economic resources, including a $400 billion cash cushion, oil and gas reserves, and a cornucopia of raw materials, at his beck and call.

Most importantly, Putin simply doesn’t trust the United States, calling it a “parasite” on the world economic body. He accuses it of bringing about the Arab Spring and “velvet revolutions” by expanding hard-to-control social media. He resents the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. And he alleges that US foreign policy disregards international law.

If the past is any predictor of the future, than  the future where we find Vladimir Putin is one where Russia sees itself as a rival to US power and influence, a state that looks as much to its tsarist past for guidance as to the west for technological theft, and where leaders rule by personality cults and competition-less elections. He may bill himself as the most interesting man in the world, but Putin is an Emperor who, clothes or not, is no friend of democracy, transparency, or the rights of the people.

[Atlantic Monthly] [The Guardian] [Christian Science Monitor]

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Libyan rebels do it from scratch…and from their arm chairs.

Speaking of Libya and American military intervention, here are a few of the weapons that the Libyan rebels have built themselves:

[Read more...]

Fukushima: should people panic…yet?

How bad is Fukushima‘s radiation? It seems like each day brings a new report about contamination in food supplies, water, or a cloud blowing towards north America.

How much radiation is it, though, relative to what we are exposed to daily? Relative to Chernobyl, the poster child for a nuclear nightmare?

Is it bad enough for us to reconsider using nuclear power as a source of energy?

(h/t to Information Is Beautiful)

Meet the Tiger Elders, with lawyers on speed-dial

Age pyramid for China showing smaller age coho...
Image via Wikipedia

Meet the Tiger Elders, with lawyers on speed-dial.

Citing the New York Times, the blog Overlawyered notes that a law has been proposed in China that would require adult children to visit their elderly parents… or face a law suit.

China is facing an aging population that will increase pension and health care costs, Baby Boomers are having on the United States, and decrease the competitive advantage afforded the country due to large quantities of cheap labor as its population leaves the labor force. Due to the one child policy, the squeeze will be much greater in China.

Perhaps requiring adult children visit and pay attention to their parents is a way to provide for the mental well-being of the elderly? And help diminish the costs on state to care for them?

firing a mayor, part 2: still, only in Russia.

Yuri Luzhkov

Image via Wikipedia

On the way to work on Monday I listened to a report on NPR about the sacking of the Mayor of Moscow, Russia, by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Where I’m from, mayors are independently elected officials, so it struck me as similar to President Obama firing Mayor Bloomberg of New York.

Apparently, the Mayor in question–Yury Luzhkov–is considered to be one of Medvedev’s rivals for 2012 (not just a presidential election in our next of the woods, apparently).  Firing him is the Kremlin’s way of removing a major rival before the 2012 elections.  Luzhov, who has been mayor since 1992, came to power under Boris Yeltsin.  Predicatably, Luzhov was not happy about being fired.

“In our country the fear of expressing your view has existed since 1937,” Luzhkov said, referring to the peak of the repression and Great Terror under Soviet dictator Josef Stalin.

“If our leadership merely supports this fear with its statements… then it is easy to go to a situation where there is just one leader in the country whose words are written in granite and who must be followed unquestionably.”

“How does this stand with your calls for ‘development of democracy’?” he asked the president.

Not that anyone really thinks of Russia of being a “lighthouse on the hill” for democracy, but still… Luzhkov said he believed he was fired because he had sought greater democracy, calling for “reinstalling direct elections for regional leaders which were scrapped in 2004 in favour of an effective direct appointment by the Kremlin.

Medvedev brushed off the criticism. And then he appointed a new mayor of Moscow.

firing a mayor: only in Russia

Just heard this on NPR: President Medvev fired Moscow’s mayor. Can he even do that? Guess democracy isn’t the same world over. More later…

The Pentagon Papers of the Afghan War? Or more smoke than fire?

Logo used by Wikileaks
Image via Wikipedia

Check it at the New York Times here, the Wall Street Journal here, Boing Boing here, and especially here, at Wikileaks.

It may be the “largest intelligence leak in history”.

Here are a few books that you might want to read: Taliban, by Ahmed Rashid, Ghost Wars by Steve Coll, Unholy Wars by John Cooley, and Descent into Chaos, also by Ahmed Rashid.  Will the past prove to be prophetic?

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A word of warning about doing business abroad…

Today, I found this “word of warning” for businesses in China, though it looks like it could apply anywhere the business is dependent on a personality or individual:

This company is in an industry very much related to government. By this I mean that it pretty much cannot avoid working with Chinese authorities in just about everything it does. This company was a great client of ours for a good spell, but we had not been hearing from them for an overlong time so I called. I learned that they are pretty much winding down their China business because their main (and pretty much only) government contact recently became persona non grata. When this contact went on the outs with one governmental entity (yes, I am being intentionally vague here too), pretty much all governmental entities started wanting to have nothing to do with my client. Within weeks, its thriving China business was tanking and try as they might, there was nothing they could do.Dan on May 5, 2010, China Law Blog, May 2010

You should read the whole article.